Once the opening settlements are down, you can settle every robber decision with one sum: the dots on a hex, times the rival buildings on it, minus your own. By the end of this page you'll have that rule, a worked example and a clear test for when to trade, and the sum takes no longer than a glance at the board. The one thing to know first is that the steal is random, so the placement does most of the damage and the card you take is a bonus.

What each number is worth to block

A token with n dots has an n/36 chance of being rolled, as the mathematician Dave Richeson sets out. So a 6 or 8 comes up five times as often as a 2 or 12. If the kids at your table still need the reasoning, here's why 6 and 8 win.

Number Dots Chance per roll As a robber target
6 or 8 5 13.9% First look, every time
5 or 9 4 11.1% Strong, and can beat a 6 or 8 with more buildings on it
4 or 10 3 8.3% Only with several rival buildings or a scarce resource
3 or 11 2 5.6% Rarely worth a move
2 or 12 1 2.8% Denies almost nothing
7 No token 16.7% (the 6/36 left over) The roll that moves the robber

The 7, in order

  1. Resolve the discards

    Everyone holding more than 7 resource cards discards half, rounded down, including you. It's done when every hand has been counted and the discards are in the bank.

  2. List the candidate hexes

    Find every hex with a rival building, leaving out the one the robber is on, because it has to move. You should have a short list of three or four worth scoring.

  3. Score each hex

    Multiply the dots by the rival buildings, counting a city as two, then subtract the dots for each building of yours in the same way. The biggest number is your default.

  4. Check for a sole wheat supply

    Look at whether a close-scoring hex is a rival's only wheat. Colonist's top-ranked 1v1 writer says that block stops settling, cities and development cards together, with ore next and sheep after that if the rival has wheat elsewhere. A gap of two or three points is the margin used here, and that's a judgment call, since no source measures it.

  5. Place the robber

    Put it on the winner. That hex stops producing until the robber moves again, though building next to it is still allowed.

  6. Draw one card

    Take a random card from one player with a building on that hex. You're done when the card is in your hand or nobody there has one to give.

The obvious objection comes from Hexagamers: "Block the highest-probability hex, not just the richest player." That's a fair corrective to blind leader-bashing, but dots alone can mislead. Richeson's own figures show a 6 with three settlements costs 15/36 of a card per roll, less than the 16/36 from a 9 with two settlements and a city.

One board, four choices

Hypothetical four-player game, early turns

Say you've just rolled a 7. Nobody has built a city, and all four players have only their opening settlements. Four hexes are worth a look.

Hex A: 8 brick, Red and Green on it5 x 2 = 10
Hex B: 9 wheat, Red and Green on it, Red's only wheat4 x 2 = 8
Hex C: 6 ore, Blue and you on it(5 x 1) - (5 x 1) = 0
Hex D: 11 sheep, Red, Green and Blue on it2 x 3 = 6

Hex A wins the sum, but Hex B is the placement. Choosing it gives up only 2/36 of a card per roll in rival losses, and in exchange Red's wheat stops entirely. Then draw from Red.

Hex C shows why you never block yourself: the score collapses to nothing, and Colonist's guide also warns that shared hexes are often better left alone. Hex D has a practical problem as well. As one older strategy guide puts it, "It is very hard for the robber to stay on a hex with three players who all want him off."

Leader or your own hexes?

Official Game Rules offers two instructions: "Block the leader's key resource" and "Protect your own hexes when you're vulnerable." In the first turns, the first barely applies, because everyone is level on points and nobody leads yet. Use the score, and let the leader break ties once someone pulls ahead.

Protecting yourself is simpler than it sounds. A 7 you roll takes the robber off your hex automatically, because it must move, so the only real question is where it lands next. A hex you share scores low, which keeps you from hitting yourself. The longer-term protection happens at setup: stacking settlements around one strong hex makes it an obvious, repeated target, which is worth remembering for your next opening placements.

You pick the victim, not the card

Plenty of advice talks about stealing ore or wheat to stall cities and development cards. You can't do that directly: the draw is random, and nobody can be made to show you their hand. What you can do is improve the odds. Between two players on a hex, draw from the one who has been collecting ore or wheat, and if that tells you nothing, draw from the one you most want to slow down.

A player with no cards can't be robbed, so check before you commit if the steal matters to you. Some online players also use a "non-steal", blocking the hex but taking nothing, when that makes sense on the board. It's the same hex block with less to resent.

When a Knight beats waiting

If the robber is sitting on one of your 6, 8, 5 or 9 hexes, play the Knight before you roll, which the official FAQ allows. Waiting is a poor bet. A 7 arrives on 6/36 of rolls and a 6 or 8 on 5/36, so a blocked 8 will come up about five times for every six 7s, and when that 7 lands, whoever rolled it chooses where the robber goes next.

Hold the card when the block is on a 2-dot or 1-dot hex, or when nothing of yours is blocked and no hex scores well. Hexagamers likes keeping one in reserve if you're a likely target, and that's sound. You can also play one purely to attack, since the robber needn't be on your hex, and each one played counts toward the 2-point Largest Army bonus.

Two rules are easy to get wrong. A Knight never triggers discards, because "this only applies when a '7' is rolled." And a 7 plus a Knight means you can move the robber twice in one turn.

Hoard or trade in the early turns

The usual advice is to stay under seven cards, but the trigger is more than seven, so seven is safe and eight is the cliff. At 7 cards you lose nothing, at 8 you lose 4, and at 9 you also lose 4. In a four-player game, the three rolls before your next turn carry about a 42% chance of at least one 7 (1 minus 5/6 cubed).

That gives a simple test as you end your turn:

  • Holding 7 or fewer, and one more turn would finish a build: hoard.
  • About to pass with 8 or more: trade or build now. The FAQ is explicit that "You can't perform trades to reduce the number of your resources to seven or fewer before resolving the consequences of the '7.'" You can't give cards away to dodge a steal either.
  • Short of a resource that only appears on a 2, 3 or 4: trade for it early, since Colonist's starting guide warns it will stay scarce.

None of these sources puts a number on hoarding versus trading beyond the discard odds, so the first and third lines are judgment. The second is arithmetic.

If it went badly at the table

Probably repetition. A Board Game Arena thread points to a bug report from a player who robbed someone early and was then targeted by every opponent for the rest of the game. If two hexes score close together, spread your blocks around rather than hitting the same person every time. The sum still matters more, but a second-best hex that doesn't start a feud is often the better choice.

Weigh it against the block. Colonist's Sergio Sastre calls these "No Block" offers extortion, with "ore for NB?" as the typical message, and notes "The deal is not binding." He also says the block "might be more valuable for you than the trade itself." If you score it that way, the only cost left is the argument, so at a family table it may be simpler to ban these deals.

Only if your table agreed to the Friendly Robber. On Colonist's ranked 1v1, a player can't be blocked or robbed until they openly hold more than 2 victory points, and hidden VP cards don't count. The BGA thread describes the threshold as 2 or more, and disputes whether it applies to the base game at all, while Steam players trace it to Traders & Barbarians. Agree on it before the first roll. It's a kind choice when teaching children because it prevents early pile-ons, but the Steam critics have a point that an early leader can run away with the game, so drop it once everyone knows the rules.

Yes. According to Colonist's rules page, the robber can't move until after the first barbarian attack, and players over the limit must discard even when a knight or Bishop card moves it. Commodities count toward the limit, and City Walls can raise it to as many as 13 cards.

No, it's a tactic. Hexagamers says choosing the player seated to your right buys more turns before the robber can be moved again. Use it to break a tie between two close scores, and not otherwise.